Cibus: From Finnish to Nordic, growth continues - SEB
EBITDA in line but financial costs on the high side
Q1 profit from property management of EUR 6.8m was clearly below our EUR 8.0m estimate. The result was burdened by higher admin costs (EUR 0.4m) and higher net financials (EUR 1.1m). Of these costs, admin costs will be elevated ahead whereas net financials are affected by a EUR 0.9m unrealised currency loss and should be normalised in Q2 and onwards. We have cut our EPS estimates by 5% for 2020 (financial and admin costs) whereas 2021-22 are down 4% driven by administrative costs only.
Opening up new hunting ground
Cibus executed EUR 175m worth of acquisitions in Q1 2020 adding 114 properties of which 111 related to the acquisition of a portfolio from Coop consolidated during March. With that as a platform Cibus is now open for small add-on acquisitions in both Sweden and Finland and the growth story through new properties is very much intact.
We estimate fair value of SEK 119-139
Our approach to Cibus’ fair value is EV/GAV range of 0.95-1.00x with the current portfolio. This reflects the steady business outlook and low group costs. The relatively high required yield for Cibus assets enables a strong 6.4-7.4% (and growing) dividend yield in 2019-22E.
Q1 profit from property management of EUR 6.8m was clearly below our EUR 8.0m estimate. The result was burdened by higher admin costs (EUR 0.4m) and higher net financials (EUR 1.1m). Of these costs, admin costs will be elevated ahead whereas net financials are affected by a EUR 0.9m unrealised currency loss and should be normalised in Q2 and onwards. We have cut our EPS estimates by 5% for 2020 (financial and admin costs) whereas 2021-22 are down 4% driven by administrative costs only.
Opening up new hunting ground
Cibus executed EUR 175m worth of acquisitions in Q1 2020 adding 114 properties of which 111 related to the acquisition of a portfolio from Coop consolidated during March. With that as a platform Cibus is now open for small add-on acquisitions in both Sweden and Finland and the growth story through new properties is very much intact.
We estimate fair value of SEK 119-139
Our approach to Cibus’ fair value is EV/GAV range of 0.95-1.00x with the current portfolio. This reflects the steady business outlook and low group costs. The relatively high required yield for Cibus assets enables a strong 6.4-7.4% (and growing) dividend yield in 2019-22E.
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